It's rarely zebras. And outside of zebra country, in places where herds of horses have run for centuries? It's not going to be zebras. It's not going to be moose.
In Europe, they've been staging nasty wars for centuries. One country or another starts to get stroppy and the next thing you know, there's a problem and unless it is addressed promptly, it festers and spreads. Napoleon, the Central Powers, Hitler, that stuff you read about in school, it's just the tip of the iceberg. From at least the Seven Years' War onward, they've been only too happy to let their wars spread.
The present conflagration is Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but anyone who thinks it will stop there has been whistling past history's graves.
Congress -- specifically, the U. S. House of Representatives -- has stymied American funding to support Ukraine's war effort. They say they're concerned about the U. S. border, which today's Republican party likes to claim is "wide open." (It's not, and I'd like to drop a random group of Congressbeings into Mexico to make their way home via unofficial channels so they can encounter the Border Patrol and find out for themselves.) That's their excuse for holding money for Ukraine hostage.
Right now, the conflict in Europe is as cheap a fight with Russia as we're ever going to get: a chance to use up aging military supplies, find out how our stuff holds up against what Russia has under real-world conditions, and do so without spilling a drop of American blood. Or we can do what the House seems to want -- hang back, complain it's not our fight, and let Mr. Putin succeed in his efforts to regain the former Soviet empire. Sooner or later, those efforts will bump into NATO. In the Baltics, in Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia (even Finland, and ask the Finns if they remember their last few Russian wars), NATO and Russia stand toe to toe. And on the far side of Russia's vast expanse, the People's Republic of China is following Putin's transgression of international norms with great interest; having absorbed Hong Kong, the only thing that that keeps them from reaching for Taiwan is the sure and certain knowledge that the free world is watching.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not an outlier. It's not a zebra. It's a horse -- the first of a herd of horses that, if not controlled, will surely trample Europe and leave ruin across the world. We can stop it now, before it spreads, or we can, once again, wait until our backs are to the wall and wage a terrible, uncertain struggle to try to put matters to rights. Those are the choices. And if WW III comes, nobody will give a damn about refugees sneaking across the border.
I don't know if Congressional Republicans are cynical and self-seeking, cowards afraid to stand up to a demagogue, accelerationist religious nutjobs, outright traitors or some combination of all four, and I don't much care. They're shambling towards another World War and they don't seem to give a damn about the long-term consequences as long as it plays well to their base -- a base whose sons and daughters will be sent to fight and die when the war they are unwilling to avert blossoms.
Why did it take so long for Europe to cooperate against Napoleon? Why didn't the civilized world kick the props out from under the shaky alliances that fueled WW I? Why wasn't Hitler brought to an end when he was only a ranting politician with odious ideas? Why didn't we stop Putin's aggression when we could?
You want the answer to the Fermi Paradox? I suspect any civilization that rises high enough to reduce itself to rubble eventually manages to, and never quite gets far enough ahead to establish a foothold off their planet before they've exhausted the available resources. Exhibit A is presently on tour in Ukraine, driving a T-90 and carrying some kind of AK variant, crapping out landmines and cluster bombs as it goes. And Exhibit B can be found in Congressional offices, pretending the oceans are impassable moats.
The "Freedom Caucus" is engaging in wedge politics to try and damage Biden's campaign. That they are playing with fire is of no nevermind to them.
ReplyDeleteNothing is more important to them then owning the Libs.
America First 2.0, but without Lindy.
ReplyDeleteThe Finns had a saying about The Russians: So many of them, so few of us, how will we bury them all?
ReplyDeleteBear in mind that the Russians still overwhelmed the Finns in the Winter War and were making progress in the Continuation War. On the positive side the Finns did so much damage in both wars that the USSR was willing to grant relatively generous peace terms.
DeleteMay I send the text of your essay to my Congress-people? They need to read this. I hope it would spark something in them...I'm not going to hold my breath, but you never know.
ReplyDeleteWell, Grich, Congresscreatures are a sensitive lot, and I'm not at all sure how they would react to my purely fanciful and in no wise serious suggestion that some number of them ought to be dropped in Mexico without papers and left to make their own way back across the border, so no, please don't my essay with them. I don't look good in a prison uniform and I should have considered my words more carefully.
ReplyDeleteTheir minds are made up, anyway. No matter where they stand, most of them are as immovable -- and clever -- as a large rock. Vote for a different rock next time if you want anything to change, and if you don't like where that one lands on the issues, there's another election in a couple-six years, and a new crop of heavy lumps.
This unworthy one wonders if cutting traffic through Suez will hurt Egypt enough that Egypt might conduct a few operations against the Houthi, being functionally allied to Israel.
ReplyDeleteSlow Joe: NATO >>>> Finland. In a conventional war, the West wins. If it goes nuclear, everyone loses.
ReplyDelete