I am fortunate to have a live-in war/history/foreign policy nerd. When politicians arch their backs and commence hissing, analysis is no farther away than a yell down the hall:
"Tamara, will there be war?"
"What?"
"You know, toe-to-to with the Russkis, sort of thing...?"
"What? Wait a minute, I have to turn down the television.* Now, what?"
"World. War. Three?"
"Oh, that. No, nobody's that crazy. Oh, there might be some tit-for-tat over Syria, and if we lose a destroyer.... But Putin's not crazy."
I hope not. The Army and Air Force still process their payroll and Accounts Payable right here in Indianapolis (well, Lawrence, IN) and that made us a fine target during the Cold War: capitalist troops would surely refuse to fight if they weren't getting paid!
Also, who knew H-bomb torpedoes and depth bombs were a thing? (No, you can't call them depth charges: they're too big.) And Tom Lehrer's still around to write the soundtrack!
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* It was either Jeopardy or a newscast.
Actually we've had nuclear torpedoes & depth charges since the 60s.
ReplyDeleteThey were launched on an ASROC missile.
Merle
I like to think that even though our civilians are theoretically in charge of the military, the military would not allow our president to lead us down a path to war negligently. If we are going to engage in war, due to a conscious action by our president, then I hope that the military can appeal to Trump's common sense. If we fall into war because of Trump's miscalculations, and it just happens, I think that we will regret it, even if we technically should win. The way the world is now, if a major war were to break out, we all realize that nobody ends up a winner, even if nuclear weapons are not used. Just the instability alone that a war would bring is enough to try to avoid it at nearly all costs.
ReplyDeleteMy take is that WWIII started when Russia annexed Crimea and nobody tried to stop them. Under the heading of "if you give a mouse a cookie..." It has just been slow to get going because people are afraid of nukes, but it is going. There was talk a couple years ago, about how other groups of ethnic Russians - like the one on the Crimean peninsula - wanted to vote to go back into Russia, just like the election in Crimea that "normalized" the annexation. What was the excuse that Germany used in Bulgaria for kicking off WWII?
ReplyDeleteAs for Syria, we have Russian "mercenaries" fighting directly with US troops. Mercenaries is in quotations because some people doubt that they are independent from Moscow. (Russian tanks. Russian artillery. Russian mercenaries?)
The Chinese are making faces at everyone, but especially at us over Taiwan this week. Well, and those artificial islands they built. Next up they will probably take over the islands Japan holds that China considers "contested."
None of this, by the way, is a result of Trump. Taiwan has been an issue for decades, but the new islands serving as bases for China were built in the last decade. And the annexation of Crimea, that took place in 2014.
*Takes deep breath*
ReplyDelete*releases it*
I'm gonna trust Tam on this. Some of my friends are freaking out low-level, and I am here going "I picked the wrong week to give up geopolitical news" but then I decided that if a nuke was headed for me, there would be (bleep)-all I could do about it anyway, and better to live happy until I die than to worry every day.
But, yeah. This is not the most enjoyable of the possible Alternative Universes out there.
To me The Cold War was WWIII
ReplyDeleteAnd I think you could make a case that WWIV has been going on since Sept. 2001, if not Nov. 1979.
Miscalculation is always a possibility, especially with the current set of players (on all sides), but I doubt we will end up in a full up conflict, as Vlad isni't about to risk Holy Mother Russia (let alone himself) for the sake of a legacy client state of marginal utility except as a means of poking the Eagle and some live fire training/OTE testing..
ReplyDelete"Putin's not crazy."
From Tam's lips to God's ears.
But I just read The Less You Know, The Better You Sleep: Russia's Road to Terror and Dictatorship under Yeltsin and Putin by David Satter, and am not sure Putin gives a rat.
Also, re: Civilian Control of the Military, some may recall Madeleine Albright wanting to go all medieval on "Slobbo" Milosevich, and when the Pentagon was less than enthusiastic, pouting "What's the point of having a military if you don't get to use it?"
I leave you with Russians by Sting.
ReplyDelete"Believe me when I say to you
I hope the Russians love their children too."
https://youtu.be/wHylQRVN2Qs
A realistic view of the history of the world would suggest strongly that WW3 is the correct name for the "Cold War", which wasn't all that cold at all. That was my war, and we won it, plain and simple.
ReplyDeleteWhat we're in now is probably WW4, which will probably alas, be followed by WW5, people being the way they are.