Let's see -- we approached the weekend with Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz was closed -- unless you handed them a million dollars, and weren't on a short list of enemies. We've exited the weekend with the President of the United States declaring the Strait of Hormuz is closed, but only to vessels headed for or leaving an Iranian port (and presumably any Iranian-flagged ones, though I don't know if they've got any big tankers). The Strait has been a battleground (battlesea?) for a long time.
In either case, it's a lot easier to close a narrow waterway than to keep it open. Commercial ships don't fare well in a battle -- see the North Atlantic in World Wars One and Two for examples -- and will avoid them if given the option. All it really takes is a motorboat with a crew shooting shoulder-fired missiles while dodging big Naval vessels. I think very highly of the U.S. Navy, but they're like elephants facing a cloud of gnats, and I'm not sure they brought enough flyswatters. I'm quite certain Iran has brought enough crazy for the task.
I don't know how things play out if (when?) a Chinese-flagged tanker decides to play chicken for a load of Iranian oil. Who wants to gamble with those kind of stakes?
We might find out. Meanwhile, the President appears to be picking a fight with the Pope. Historically, the Holy See is the side to bet on. As the oldest center of power in the West, Rome has outlasted every government that presented opposition, and looked on while a few of them were stomped flat. You may well argue the Pope is not his Church -- but the relationship is modeled after that of a Roman paterfamilias to his family, nearly absolute rule.
Interesting times. I wish we were not experiencing such interesting times, but so has most of humanity, for most of our existence. Excitement is a bane, dullness a luxury.
Update
1 year ago
2 comments:
On a happy note, it appears that two creeps are getting scandle'd out of Congress, one from each team. Of course, it's only two of many, and it's a thing that should have been sniffed out & aired out a long, long time ago for each of them.
Also, beefing with the Pope while posting photos of himself as Jesus (with a super stupid cope offered) might not be the thing that pushes MAGA over the edge, but it is a thing that has set a few teeth on edge. This, his Rob Reiner tweet, his constant turning to attack supporters that venture the slightest criticism, the declining economy, the endless cope by his fawning media sycophants- all this is leading to some serious MAGA fatigue. And that's a dangerous thing for them in a midterm year, when control of Congress is at a razor's edge.
Already, the Cali Republicans have refused to endorse his guy for Governor. If we get a Blue Wave, expect the remaining Republicans to underbus Trump faster than Trump dumped Epstein.
It'll be even worse if Xi decides to ante in with a tanker escorted by a PLAN escort.
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