Wednesday, December 16, 2020

Not How That Works

      This concerns the recent Presidential election.  So I'm going to do my best to address this on the basis of fact, not opinion -- including my own opinions.  I won't debate opinions in comments, either -- pro, con or zany.  Nope, this is about how the machinery works, period.

      The latest "make it didn't happen" meme going around* lays out a scenario in which the joint session of Congress to count the votes of the Electoral College, overseen by Vice-President Pence, instead throws out enough of them that the House will pick the new President and the Senate will select the V.P.  The meme assures us that the outcome is a sure thing, since the House will vote by State and not by Representative, which supposedly will give the GOP a majority.  And thus, it claims, President Trump and Vice-President Pence will remain in office.

      The problem here is that the meme conflates two things: resolving disputed Electoral College votes and selecting a President and Vice-President if no candidate has won a majority of Electoral votes. They are not the same process.

      If a member of the House and and member of the Senate both object in writing to the same Electoral college vote -- and this has happened already, in 2005 -- then the two bodies separate, debate the matter for up to two hours, and the House and Senate each have a roll-call, per-member vote.  If they both vote to reject the contested vote(s), out they go; if there is any other result, they stay in.  The House does not vote on this by state.  For those who have not been keeping score, at present and in 2021 the Democrats hold a majority in the House of Representatives.  The GOP are in the majority in the Senate now; the Senate majority in 2021 will depend on the result of the upcoming election in Georgia.  Getting the House and Senate to agree that some Electoral votes should be thrown out is highly unlikely

      Should the House end up picking a President, then they would be voting by state, and someone else can go predict the result by toting up Party memberships of each state's delegation and assuming -- reasonably enough -- that they would vote along Party lines, the majority in each state thus determining the vote of their state.  But remember, to get there would require a situation in which neither candidate had received a majority of Electoral College votes, and that's unlikely to happen. 
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* Here's the gist of the invidious thing, and a reminder: any time you see anything like this, from any source, go look it up for yourself. Obfuscation and nonsense abounds.
      "Today, the electoral college votes will be sealed and sent by special carrier to Washington where they will remain sealed until January 6th when the House and Senate will come into a joint session to open the votes. The media is going to make you believe that it's all over and Joe Biden is now officially president...
[...]... Vice President Mike Pence will have all the authority as president of the Senate for that day and will accept or reject motions to decide the next steps by the assembly.
      "Remember... Mike Pence is in full authority that day as written in the Constitution. The ballots will be certified today but that means nothing...
The votes will be opened and at that point one House member could, and most likely will, raise their hand to object to the Vice President on the state of elector's votes. That objection could cover fraud or any other reason, and with the seconding of that objection everything changes. Everything!!
      "The House and Senate will divide for two hours (at least) to debate, then vote. The vote will be per Senator with the Vice President being the deciding vote if needed in the Senate, while the vote in the House will be only be ONE vote per delegation, per state, not per House member!!! The Republicans have 30 delegation votes compared to the Democrats 20 delegation votes.
      "If this scenario runs true, President Trump gets re-elected.[...]"
      Someone must have not been paying close attention in Civics or U. S. Government class.

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