Last night was considerably less miserable than the night before and I have every reason to believe the trend will continue.
The economy's got a cold, too, and perhaps today is the day we find out if it is only a cold or devastating influenza. The stock market, here and elsewhere, is a useful if imperfect proxy for economic health, and... Um. It's not looking so good. Time will tell, and only a bad person or a lunatic would wish for a crash.
Update
3 months ago
5 comments:
Here's wishes for you to feel better soon, and for plenty of chicken soup and a pile of good reading to feel better to.
The last time I was sick, I steered clear of the online craziness, and lulled myself to sleep with YT videos of people mowing grass. Slept all day, until Jeopardy! came on. Gotta watch Jeopardy!.
Three useful principles I learned in business school.
1. The Stock Market is a leading indicator. It will pick up before you see evidence in production and sales.
2. The employment rate is a lagging indicator. Once Unemployment goes down, start looking for the first signs of a recession.
3. Reducing Interest rates takes sales from the future where customers would otherwise have to save a bit more before buying expensive products.
This is why the Stock Market goes up on bad news like Layoffs.
In school Economics appeared to be only graphs without numbers but lots of words, and the science of economics has been "The Dismal Science" for 200 years.
Since we have a President that’s a lunatic, bad, and stupid, he’ll keep saying everything is fine. We are moving from a serious economic cold to one with severe pneumonia. Smoot-Hawley Territory.
Don't forget his mass of uncritical followers, many who would continue to say that Everything is Great even as they stand in line at the soup kitchens.
There will be stages to this, as some people reluctantly realize their electorial mistakes. In Nov 2024, a critical mass of voters went for Trump. From then until last month, there was a lot of euphoria on that side of the aisle, with the easy dismissal of any problems pointed out.
When Signalgate & DOGE cuts happened, a few started noticing that Trump isn't the Second Coming.
The Tariff Crash is causing a few more to wake up to reality that maybe the old guy doesn't really know what he's doing.
Now, the cope & yeabutts are flowing freely from the admin's pet pundits, and it's possible that they might pull off some small victories. But that will not continue. Some people absolutely will sing Trump's praises as their savings disappear and they move into the poor house. But I suspect enough won't.
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