Predictably...

     A few innumerate folks have written to tell me that nuh-unh, most American citizens really do want ICE raids and federal response to protests against them.

     So let's run the numbers.  64% turnout in 2024, so 36% of possible voters picked None Of The Above, or at least didn't care enough to vote.  The remainder and a bit of math gives us 30.9% of possible voters for Harris, 31.8% for Trump and 1.3% for someone else.  That's 31.8% of possible voters who wanted Mr. Trump badly enough to go vote for him -- and 68.2% of them who did not.

     This is a close match to a President whose favorability scores run in the 40s.  Which they do, and were falling the last time I checked.

     Sure, a lot of people aren't upset enough to go marching and waving signs, and even fewer are so mad they'll set cars on fire or throw things at well-armed police.  But don't for a minute confuse that with enthusiasm for oppression or masked federal agents staging raids on people showing up for immigration hearings or hanging around big-box building-supply stores hoping to pick up work.  It's not popular -- and will get less so as the high-effort, low-paid jobs that keep us fed and housed increasingly go unfilled.

     My suspicion is that these chickens will come home to roost in the midterms, and the Trumpists in office and holding Administration jobs will cry foul when their numbers shrink.  The only question is how bad the rout will be -- and if the opposition party (parties?) can come up with a clear counter-message of their own in the meantime.  California's Governor Gavin Newsom, who was trying pretty hard to hunt with the hounds and run with the hares at the same time, is presently learning a painful lesson about carrying a scorpion across a river, but will it stick?