It's a simple grid, a logic chart, two sets of two-value inputs and the outcomes when they are combined. Let's apply it to SARS-CoV-2 and see how it works out:
1. You stay home if you can, and take precautions if you cannot. No unnecessary contact.
A. If the coronavirus is over-hyped, you'll be a little bored.
B. If the coronavirus is as bad as CDC and WHO say it is, you will not get sick, or at least if you do, the hospitals won't be overloaded. You won't spread the virus.
2. You live life as usual, 'cos you're tough and brave.
A. If the coronavirus is over-hyped, you'll do fine. And hey, no crowds at the bar!
B. If the coronavirus is as bad as CDC and WHO say it is, you will get sick and you will spread the disease. Possibly to elderly or otherwise vulnerable family members, who have a much higher chance of death. If you're over 60, the odds are distressingly high that you may die.
Choice one or choice two: which one has the worst downside? I don't know about you, but I'm going to treat this sickness as real. You can't bluff a virus. The Johns Hopkins data is convincing.
6 months ago