There are a couple of comments sitting in the "to be screened" stack that I'm probably not going to publish. Not because they're insulting or threatening; not because I disagree with their content, which I mostly don't.
Nope. The problem is that they indulge in a mental game that I think is pointless, one that I speak out against: they're trying to project the future. They're trying to play serious chess with politics.
I'm a lousy chess player, but even I know those sixty-four squares and thirty-two* pieces add up quickly to a staggering number of possibilities, and the more moves ahead you're looking, the more there are. And that's with only a limited number of motions available. Politics is played on a much bigger board with many more pieces, and every one of them, even the pawns, decides its own moves.
The next move, maybe -- rarely -- even the next two, might be obvious. Try to predict too much further and you're unlikely to be right. And it's rarely necessary; you can find out by waiting and watching. Things that are genuinely unworkable aren't going to work; policies and actions that prompt widespread protests are worth investigating: why are they being promoted? Why is there protest against or (also rarely) for them? Who likes the notion? Who hates it? Find out as the thing moves.
And learn the lesson of Cassandra: There's rarely any award for being right. Work on being nimble instead. Saying "I told you so" as the boulder crashes down is a distant second to dodging the damned thing before it hits you.
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* Or, if you're on my side of the board, sixteen, fifteen, fourteen, more...checkmate....
Update
10 months ago
