Things didn't end well for Cassandra, but they were bad long before they got worse: the thing about prophecies of doom is, even if they're right, they're a downer.
The downer at present is that we're in a "K-shaped economy," which feels preposterous to most Americans: how can a rising tide not be lifting all boats?
But that's how it's working: if you were well-off to begin with, came out of the pandemic with money to play the stock market and not worry, a bit in crypto, maybe dabble in prediction markets, you're doing fine. The trade war (wars?) haven't bothered you; the un-war with Iran hasn't been an issue, and while there's a whole lot of oil and gas (and aluminum and ammonia plus nitrates for fertilizer) bottled up in the Strait of Hormuz, those chickens are still scratching in the yard, and aren't due home to roost for weeks yet. The top half of the K is going up, up, up!
But this K is a fancy font: the bottom half is a quarter circle. If you started out just okay, you're still mostly okay; if you were worse off, you can already feel the pinch of high gas prices and grocery prices that have barely budged down or even gone up, of rising energy costs.... And the people near the bottom, where the curve is getting steep? They're hosed. (Welcome to Calculus 001, by the way. Oh, we've reached my stop already.)
There are a lot more of us in the bottom of the K than the top, but we don't make colorful news copy; we're not part of the "AI boom" and some of us have lost jobs to it; still, one of the biggest groups is right there where the curve is barely sloping: they're not feeling it much so far.
But the big dip in the road is coming. There is no magic restart for the lost months of global trade in oil and all the stuff you can make with it. Fertilizer is in short supply and expensive, and that's what grows the crops you and your entree eat. Aluminum -- beer cans, soft drink cans, all manner of consumer and industrial goods -- is getting scarce and costly. And oil prices -- well, you buy gas; you know how that's trending. There will be a "capture transient" as it ends, prices ramping up beforehand, undercut by the sudden bump in supply that may result in a nasty fall. A saving grace as the problem continues is that idled refineries and oil wells (etc.) don't start up quickly; but it's a bitter pill, since it will mean lingering shortages and higher prices until it's all back up to speed.
Nobody liked Cassandra very much. They liked her predictions less. And in a K-shaped economy, you can see the party is roaring! Look at 'em, in their Rollses and Bentleys, with BMWs and Mercedeses (Mercedii?) for the kids, and all their outrageous costumes -- surely you, too, will soon join them! It's right there, online and on TV, glittering and shiny, nearly close enough to touch.
Thing is, you're not gonna get there. In a K-shaped economy, very few cross over. The odds it'll be you or me are lousy. I'm not Cassanda; I'll be happy to have missed my mark. But that's not how I'm betting.
Update
1 year ago
4 comments:
Social Media ain't helping things, either. The plague of Influencers, Looksmaxxers, Alpha Males, and OFers going into massive debt to pretend at unimaginable wealth on screen with rented Miami apartments, rented supercars, steroids or cosmetic surgery, ect. Or the 'shopping hauls' that were paid shilling.
Of course, you too can become as rich as they are- just sign up for their wealth course for $3,500 per month... and if you pay more, you can get personal life coaching.
Notice how these people tend to gravitate towards a certain current admin?
We are certainly in the Golden Age of Grift.
Mercedii? Yes! I like your word.
There is some worry here in farm country that the rising input prices coupled with interest rate wackiness and loss of foreign markets will conspire to create a repeat of the farm crisis of the 1980's, with an increase in bankruptcies and suicides, and a further consolidation of farming from small family farms into larger and larger corporate behemoths, dealing with fewer and larger implement dealers and cooperatives.
And it's sad to watch our dear broadcast industry evolve (devolve?) into something it wasn't before. Dozens more journalists and technicians were fired this week across the country as stations do "more" with less, experienced pros are replaced with young, inexperienced people (with smaller salaries) without the mentorship of the older folks. And now comes the looming possibility that CNN will get purged CBS-style, and turned into another Trump mouthpiece.
Ugh.
Good Analogy. You left out the people on the "neck" of the K.
These one,s are the ones that, even though near retirement or looking to retire, are leery of stopping work. They are the one's that have 401's that are locked into to the places they work. The only way to access those funds is to terminate your employment. In the meantime you are at the mercy of the policies and opinions of the ones in the upper "K". When the downturn comes it will be hard and fast. The dilemma is "do I stay working and risk my money", or "do I cut and run now" and get out of the rigged stock market. I chose the latter.....
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