Monday, March 30, 2020


     There's a very good site with national and state-by-state predictions for the course of COVID-19.  It's run by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), a think tank that describes themselves as having "the goal of providing an impartial, evidence-based picture of global health trends to inform the work of policymakers, researchers, and funders."  They've got a nice, fat $279 million grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to do it with, free and clear.*

     When it comes to COVID-19, they, like the rest of us, want to know what's going to happen next.  To that end, they are collecting and collating data as it becomes available, refining their models and updating it daily.  Unlike a lot of such sites, they include not just the median prediction, but error bands as well: they're willing to show the limits of their knowledge and their models.

     The state-level predictions I have looked at (many) are a good fit to what I know (not much) and have extrapolated.  New York and many of the surrounding states are in serious trouble; a lot of the Midwest is in better (but still worrying) shape.

     Have a look.
* Paranoid rants incoming to comments in five, four, three....  You know, writing that in all caps isn't going to improve the odds of my letting it through the filters.  I have been patient with people's irrational suspicion for years, in large part because I figure all our institution need watching and it's a great way to keep the 'noids usefully busy; but there's a limit and I reached it some time last week.  Not every comment I sideline fits that category, and I am sorry to have had to hold up quite a few good ones because they included assertions I could not verify, or digressed into political partisanship that serves no useful purpose against this pandemic.


Carteach said...

Thank you!

RandyGC said...


I particularly like the ability to limit the prediction graphs geographically to see how it applies locally, without the skewing caused by questionable numbers for certain international sources when looking at global stats.

Ritchie said...

Being in the target demo, I have some concern about events after restrictions are lifted and everyone runs outside to play. Or inside. Fresh fuel on the embers. However, I am completely untroubled by actual information.

Richard P said...

Thanks for this link—those are very informative graphs, and actually pretty encouraging.