Sunday, June 22, 2008

What If Heller Goes to...Heck?

I'm seeing a lot of confidence in the outcome of Heller and it is possible it will be entirely justified by the decision.

What if it isn't? Who's got a Plan B?

There are many possible outcomes, all the way from the High Court taking the Brady stinkfinger and telling us, "If you want a gun, join the National Guard!" to becoming delightfully Original Intent and ruling, "Shall not be infringed. Shall. Not. QED." What I expect is nuance; this is legalese for "weaseling." After all, they're lawyers. If they're not generating a great deal of paperwork covvered with impressive-looking verbiage, how would we know they'd been working at all?

The trouble with nuance is there's a lot of room for interpretation. On the other hand, better nuance than a blanket "no."

Just don't uncork the champagne before the chickens have hatched. The Supremes have a long, strange history of balking at gnats while swallowing Camels (or even Viceroys) whole. We'd best prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.


Alan said...

IANAL, but I think the worst case if Heller goes the other way is the status quo.

I going to make a bold prediction, and say we'll see an 9-0 opinion that the 2nd confirms an individual right.

I expect that opinion will also be heavily nuanced so we get pretty much what we already have: it's an individual right but the government can regulate it.

One way or another we'll know soon.

GeorgeH said...

The odd, based on who has done the most opinions so far this year seem to be on Scalia or Roberts writing Heller. That has me hopeful.

If Heller goes against us, and Obama is elected with a democrat congress, I think we can expect to have all firearms banned within 2 years.

Then we will each have to decide if we are going to hand ours in bullets first.

Anonymous said...

first, my prediction:

Rule a 2a right. DC's ban violates that right. Court gives no guidance on acceptable gun control. we spend the next 3 decades deciding what gun controls are acceptable. Chicago and NYC are next.

That said, if it goes badly, there'll be a big gigantic shit storm

Dr. Coyote said...

Plan B, Mark 1 Mod 1:

Certain states revive their not-the-National-Guard militias. Anyone who can qualify for, say, a CCW can join. For a donation to the organization approximating the purchace price of an M4, you get an M4. For something approximating the price of an M1A, you get an M14.

Not pretty, but it would would fit under the collective right argument. And it would keep useful guns in the hands of citizens.

Anonymous said...

Too late to "prepare for the worst". I'm hoping for the best. IF SCOTUS goes against us, then I'll worry.

Sevesteen said...

California will continue to add more and more roadblocks to gun ownership until it is impractical for normal people. The rest of the country will remain pretty much as-is, but we will continue to slowly advance gun rights at the state level. As far as I can see, the Second has been a rallying point rather than an enforced law.

Comrade Misfit said...

The Supremes know that this one is going to be a corker, regardless of which way they rule. They seem to have a track record of releasing the opinions on the most volatile on the last day of the term. Rehnquist used to fly out of the country that same afternoon (no, I am not making that up).

GeorgeH is wrong. There are enough Democrats who remember the blowback from the Brady Bill. Bills to ban guns may be introduced, but they will not be passed. They may not even make it out of committee.